| CHAPTER 3 A PROFILE OF VIOLENT CRIME IN POST-APARTHEID SOUTH AFRICA |
Policy responses to South Africa's burgeoning crime problem need to be grounded in an accurate understanding of the current realities. Statistical evidence, despite its shortcomings, provides important information on the crime situation and can be used to inform crime-fighting efforts.
There are three main sources of crime statistics: police or government department crime statistics, victim surveys and self-report surveys,1 each of which is subject to inherent shortcomings. In South Africa self-report surveys have been under-utilised and currently most statistical information is generated by (he police and victimisation surveys.2
Until recently, the South African Police Service (SAPS) Crime Information Analysis Centre (CIAC) published semester and monthly reports on the twenty most serious crime tendencies in South Africa,3 Crimes pertinent to this discussion fall mainly under the classification of violent and social fabric crimes. The category "violent crime" comprises murder, attempted murder and robbery with aggravating circumstances. Robbery with aggravating circumstances includes car hijacking, hijacking of trucks, robbery of Cash-in-transit and bank robbery as well as other acts of robbery involving a high level of violence or the threat thereof. "Social fabric crimes" cover rape, common assault and assault GBH (assault with intent to inflict grievous bodily harm).4
Whilst no doubt every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of this data, there are reasons that official police statistics should be used circumspectly.
The first reason is that of underreporting to police. This is not a peculiarly South African phenomenon, but given the historical mistrust of the police, underreporting may be especially high at least with regard to certain crimes.5 Secondly, in South Africa police statistics reflect only those cases in which a docket has been opened. Where the victim is related to the perpetrator, the victim often decides to drop the charges and these cases are then not reflected in police statistics.6
There are also crimes, such as illegal possession of firearms, which are heavily dependent on the police for detection as there is no complainant to report the crime. An increase or decrease in these figures may reflect more on policing and detection than on an actual fluctuation in the incidence of this crime. In any event these statistics reflect only those crimes which the police uncovered which may constitute a fraction of the real number of criminal incidents.
For the reasons cited above, caution needs to be exercised when utilising police statistics to calculate the exact extent of any particular crime. However, assuming that, all other things being equal, underreporting and other errors are fairly consistent over time; police statistics are fairly reliable indicators of short-term crime trends. The CIAC reports also provide valuable information on some of the circumstances surrounding selected crimes. This proves beneficial when devising intervention strategies.
Unfortunately police databases were not designed for analytical purposes. They do not take account of explanatory variables and do not link crime statistics or occurrences with socio-economic, demographic and policing data7. If this could be rectified it would aid in ascertaining the relationships between different types of crime and some of these variables. In the mean time victim surveys provide a valuable source of information on the relationship between the incidence of crime and some of these explanatory variables.
Victim surveys such as those conducted by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in 1998 are the second source of crime statistics.8 These surveys have the advantage that victims may be more forthcoming with a civilian interviewer than with the police. Victim surveys also provide valuable information about the relationship between victimisation and life circumstances such as socio-economic status, geographic variants, and demographic variables on which official statistics are often mute.9 Being able to identify who is most at risk (as these surveys interview both those who have been victimised and those who have not) is very valuable in identifying the groups most vulnerable to certain crime types.10 Victim surveys can also aid in establishing the magnitude of underreporting to the police. In this way they are able to help provide a more accurate picture of the full extent of crime.11
The main shortcoming of these surveys is that human memory is fallible. The respondent's reporting may be inaccurate especially if the crime was perpetrated some time before the survey was conducted.12 Also the results generated by various surveys may differ because of disparate sampling methods.
Crime statistics can also be gathered from self-report surveys where perpetrators themselves divulge information about crimes that they have committed and other pertinent information.13 It is improbable that hardened criminals will voluntarily confess to their crimes. However, conducting these surveys amongst the general public is useful in terms of eliciting information about crimes like domestic violence where questions can be framed in such a way that people do not feel they that are implicating themselves or making themselves liable to prosecution.
Surveys can also be done amongst convicted felons,14 which may provide valuable insight into the mentality and motivation of the criminal. Unfortunately, this kind of survey has proved difficult in South Africa. A project was launched by the CIAC to establish the role that HIV/AIDS myths play in the perpetration of rape, but had to be aborted because of a lack of co-operation by the offenders.15
The International Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring Programme (I-ADAM) only recently commenced in South Africa but appears to be having more success. The pilot studies all indicate a strong double nexus between alcohol and /or drug abuse and crime. The contention is that often people commit crime under the influence of alcohol and/or drugs. Their habit may also become very expensive to maintain and in this way "impel" them to participate in criminal activities.16
It would be very valuable if self-report surveys could be utilised to shed some light on various blind spots in our knowledge about criminality in South Africa. For instance, the efficacy of deterrents such as sentence length, arrest and conviction rates, or an armed citizenry, the primary motivations for criminal involvement in certain crimes, incentives and disincentives of a life of crime and the ease with which weapons can be obtained, could be explored.
In South Africa the level of violent crime is extraordinarily high and of utmost concern to the government and population alike17 Approximately one third of all reported crimes in South Africa are violent in nature, including murder, attempted murder, robbery, assault (common and GBH) and rape. The murder rate stands at about eight times the international average18 and South Africa is reported to have one of, if not the, highest rape rate in the world.19
The need to develop effective strategies to combat violence in South Africa requires that violent crime be dis-aggregated and that the specifics surrounding the incidence of each crime type be understood. It is contended that the dynamics surrounding a gang rape differ substantially from those involved in a bank robbery or cash-in-transit heist. If this is the case then no "catch all" policy will effectively deter all types of violent crime equally. However, there are commonalties that all gang rapes or bank robberies share that are relevant to preventative initiatives. Compiling a profile of the typical incident of each type of violent crime aids in tailor making interventions to address that particular crime type.
For the purposes of evaluating the potential impact of strict firearm control on violent crime, it is important to establish the set of violent crimes routinely perpetrated with a firearm. It is unreasonable to contend that a crime not perpetrated with a firearm would have been precluded by preventing the perpetrator having had access to a firearm.
Whilst any crime can potentially involve the use of a firearm, police classification distinguishes between crimes on the basis of the level of violence involved. Weapon use is one of the factors taken into account. Common assault, by definition, excludes the use of a weapon and is, therefore, omitted from further analysis in this regard. Assault GBH could conceivably involve use of a firearm, but in reality all non-fatal attacks with a firearm are recorded as attempted murder.20 Thus, using official police categories those crimes that could potentially involve the use of a firearm are murder, attempted murder, rape, robbery with aggravating circumstances and attempted robbery with aggravating circumstances.
For the purpose of developing intervention strategies, it is useful to classify violent crimes on the basis of the victim-perpetrator relationship and the degree of organised intent. Following the World Health Organisation 21 violence can be classified as:
- Intimate Violence (abuse of children, spouse or partner)
- Acquaintance Violence (such as between drinking partners, date rape)
- Stranger violence (most aggravated robbery)
- Organised Violence (such as factional conflicts and taxi-violence)
- Self-directed violence (suicide and self-mutilation)
These categories will be utilised in the following examination of violent crime in South Africa in an attempt to establish the relative frequency of each type of violence for each relevant crime type.22 Attempting to determine the proportion of murders, robberies etc that are a result of each type of violence, aids in formulating an appropriate intervention.
CIAC figures indicate that murder and attempted murder decreased during the period 1994 to 1999.23 Given the high degree of the reporting of murder,24 of all the crime statistics available, these figures are probably the most accurate.
Murder decreased in real figures and in terms of the ratio per 100 000 in the period 1994 to 1999, whilst for attempted murder the actual number of attempted murders was in fact higher in 1999 than 1994.25 However, given the population increase in those five years the ratio of attempted murders per 100 000 decreased. The decrease in murders may be partially related to a decrease in political violence that began to wane in the years subsequent to 1994.26
An interesting feature of the murder and attempted murder figures is that while murder decreased from 69.5 per 100 000 in 1994 to 55.3 per 100 000 in 1999, attempted murder decreased from 70.7 per 100 000 in 1994 to 66.6 in 1999.27 Thus the rate of murder has dropped to a much greater degree than the rate of attempted murder. This would indicate that there has been a much smaller decrease in potentially fatal attacks, than the murder figures alone would appear to indicate.
The national Victims of Crime Survey revealed that 73.4 percent of all murders were perpetrated with a weapon. Of those perpetrators carrying a weapon, 58 percent were armed with a gun and 42 percent with a knife or other sharp object. Where the perpetrator was unarmed, death was by beating, assault, throwing off train, strangulation etc.28
SAPS data indicate that whilst murder and attempted murder have been on the decrease since 1994, the number of murders committed with firearms has been steadily increasing from 41 percent in 1994 to 49 percent in 1998. Interestingly, the use of firearms utilised in attempted murders has been steadily decreasing from 86.7 percent of all attempted murders in 1994 to 74.7 percent in 1998. It should be noted that the statistics concerning the use of weapons in attempted murders are somewhat misleading as almost all non-fatal attacks with a firearm are recorded as attempted murder whereas attacks with a knife or other weapon tend to be recorded as assault GBH.29
| 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | |
| Murder | 69.5 | 67.5 | 63.9 | 59.6 | 59.0 | 55.3 |
| Attempted Murder | 70.7 | 67.2 | 70.7 | 68.3 | 69.8 | 66.6 |
| Aggravated Robbery | 219.8 | 202.8 | 166.7 | 169.0 | 209.6 | 225.7 |
| Carjacking | - | - | 31.9 | 31.6 | 35.9 | 35.9 |
| Hijacking (trucks) | - | - | 9.2 | 10.4 | 13.7 | 12.8 |
| Robbery of cash-in-transit | - | - | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Bank robbery | - | - | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Rape | 109.8 | 120.3 | 125.1 | 126.5 | 117.0 | 119.0 |
| Assault GBH | 544.3 | 559.8 | 571.2 | 568.9 | 555.6 | 595.6 |
| Common Assault | 501.6 | 519.5 | 509.0 | 489.6 | 473.1 | 515.4 |
(Source: SAPS CIAC, Semester Report 1/2000)
| CRIME | RSA | PRV 1 | PRV 2 | PRV 3 | PRV 4 | PRV 5 | PRV 6 | PRV 7 | PRV 8 | PRV 9 |
| VIOLENT CRIMES | ||||||||||
| Murder | 55.3 | WC | KZN | GN | NC | EC | FS | MPL | NW | NP |
| 81.2 | 70.2 | 69.0 | 60.9 | 59.0 | 39.6 | 37.8 | 33.9 | 17.1 | ||
| Attempted murder | 66.6 | GN | WC | KZN | MPL | NW | NC | EC | FS | NP |
| 90.1 | 87.2 | 84.4 | 59.0 | 57.8 | 53.5 | 52.7 | 43.5 | 27.7 | ||
| Aggravated Robbery | 225.7 | GN | KZN | WC | MPL | NW | EC | FS | NP | NC |
| 585.0 | 247.2 | 199.1 | 154,2 | 125.7 | 105.1 | 78.0 | 48.9 | 45.8 | ||
| SOCIAL FABRIC CRIMES | ||||||||||
| Rape | 119.0 | NC | WC | GN | NW | FS | MPL | EC | KZN | NP |
| 169.1 | 159.9 | 155.6 | 128.5 | 124.9 | 109.6 | 103.2 | 99.6 | 73.4 | ||
| Assault GBH | 595.6 | NC | WC | GN | FS | NW | EC | MPL | NP | KZN |
| 1614.2 | 806.0 | 690.4 | 653.9 | 638.6 | 625.2 | 618.2 | 426.6 | 350.4 | ||
| Common Assault | 515.4 | WC 1072.0 |
NC 1037.8 |
FS 809.5 |
GN 588.5 |
NW 448.5 |
EC 428.5 |
MPL 3443 |
KZN 322.5 |
NP 306.6 |
| Abbreviations of Provinces: GN =
Gauteng, KZN = Kwa-Zulu Natal, EC = Eastern Cape. WC = Western Cape, NC = Northern Cape, FS = Free State, MPL = Mpumalanga, NP = Northern Province and NW = North West |
(Source: SAPS CIAC Semester Report 1/2000)
An analysis of murder dockets by the CIAC office in the Eastern Cape during 1996, indicates that only 4 percent of the murder cases could be attributed to factional conflicts, 3 percent to taxi related violence and 1 percent to gang related violence. The remaining 92 percent of murder cases were predominantly associated with drug and alcohol abuse. Only 34 percent of all murders under consideration were perpetrated with firearms.30
Data from the Northern Cape demonstrate similar findings. Alcohol and family disputes seemed to characterise these cases. Most murders occurred on Saturdays, especially Saturday evenings. Of all murder victims, 68 percent were stabbed, 52 percent with a knife and the remainder with another object. In the vast majority of cases, no premeditation was evident.31
Docket analysis done in the Free State indicates the same tendencies. Most murders were committed with knives or other objects and firearms were used in a minority of cases. The most common motive for the murders was personal or inter-personal problems such as marital problems, jealousy and self-defence. In the majority of cases either the perpetrator or the victim, or both, were under the influence of alcohol when the act occurred. Many murders also occurred in or in the vicinity of drinking places.32
The CIAC office in Mpumalanga confirms the patterns observed in other provinces: 59.1 percent, of the murder cases analysed at the beginning of 1997, occurred in shebeens and other drinking places. In an additional 20.1 percent of the cases the evidence proved inconclusive but it appeared that the victims were murdered on their way to or from drinking places. Evidence suggests that only 15.7 percent of cases may have involved premeditation.
Data from the Western Cape in 1999 indicate similar tendencies. Most murders took place on Saturday evenings. More than half the murders were stabbings with a knife or other sharp object. Only one quarter were firearm-related homicides.33
The information gathered from the provinces discussed above indicates that the dominant feature of murder in these provinces is alcohol abuse and intoxication coupled with interpersonal disputes. This is partly a consequence of the historic 'tot system" whereby farm workers were compensated (or at partly compensated) with wine. Despite the termination of the system, the alcoholic tendencies that it engendered remain. Geographic crime pattern analysis reveals that those areas in which the "tot system" once prevailed, have consistently experienced the highest ratios of assault, rape and murder.34
It appears that most cases of murder occur over the weekends and especially in the festive seasons, often in and around drinking holes. Most perpetrators and victims are known to each other and more often victims are stabbed rather than shot. It can be reasonably concluded that in the provinces discussed above, murder is predominantly the result of intimate or acquaintance violence, In the most typical scenario inferred from available evidence, an argument occurs and leads to a common assault. This escalates as one or more party is under the influence of alcohol and, therefore, less rational, less inhibited etc. At least one party lays their hands on the first available weapon (most often a knife or broken bottle) and the end result is homicide.35
The breakdown of typical characteristics surrounding murder and attempted murder in Kwa-Zulu Natal and Gauteng may differ in significant aspects from the remainder of South Africa. It is possible that the proportion of stranger and organised violence is higher in these provinces. However, at this point the breakdown of murder statistics into intimate, acquaintance, organised and stranger violence etc. is not known. Generally, the inhabitants of the North- Eastern part of the country seem to be less inclined to endemic excessive alcohol consumption and concurrent interpersonal fights.36
Of all the provinces in South Africa, it is only in Kwa-Zulu Natal and Gauteng that firearm murders exceed murder by means of other weapons. Firearm murders in these two provinces together account for about 65 percent of all firearm-related murders and 49 percent of the total murders in South Africa.37
Attempted murder in general appears to be less strongly associated with alcohol abuse than murder. Attempted murder is predictably high in areas experiencing factional/political/ ideological conflicts such as the Natal Midlands, Umzimkulu and Durban as well as areas where gang warfare and gang- PAGAD conflicts occur, such as the Cape Town Metropolitan area. Attempted murder is also high in Gauteng especially in Johannesburg, Soweto and the East Rand, where armed robbery (most commonly hijackings and robbery at residential premises) is at its highest level.38
Kwa-Zulu Natal and Gauteng are the main financial centres of South Africa, are more densely populated and have high unemployment and crime rates.39 As a result these two provinces also have a disproportionate share of aggravated robbery and the violence that accompanies it.40 However, contrary to popular perception and despite the fact that the vast majority of robbers are armed, police reports indicate hijacking of trucks and cars, bank robberies and cash-in-transit heists result in less than one percent of all homicides in South Africa,41 It is unknown how many other cases of serious robbery result in the death of the victim.
| 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | |
| Murder Total | 26 832 | 26 637 | 25 782 | 24 588 | 24 875 |
| Murder with firearm | 11 134 | 11 056 | 11 394 | 11 224 | 12 298 |
| Murder Firearm murders as % of total | 41.5% | 41.5% | 44.2% | 45.6% | 49.4% |
(Source: SAPS CIAC in Chetty, "Firearm Crime in South Africa," 20)
| 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | |
| Attempted Murder Total | 27 300 | 26 512 | 28 516 | 28 148 | 29 418 |
| Attempted Murder with firearm | 23 682 | 22 035 | 22 383 | 20 933 | 21 967 |
| Attempted Murder with firearm as % of total | 86.7% | 83.1% | 78,5% | 74.4% | 74.7% |
(Source: SAPS CIAC in Chetty, "Firearm Crime in South Africa" 26)
| PROVINCE | FIREARM MURDERS | NON-FIREARM MURDERS | TOTAL MURDERS | FIREARM MURDERS AS % OF TOTAL MURDERS PER PROVINCE | PROVINCIAL FIREARMS MURDERS AS % OF TOTAL FIREARM MURDERS IN RSA |
| Gauteng | 4 121 | 1 757 | 5 881 | 70% | 33.5% |
| KZN | 3 815 | 2 703 | 6 518 | 59% | 31% |
| Mpumalanga | 575 | 636 | 1 211 | 47% | 4.7% |
| NorthWest | 552 | 802 | 1 354 | 41% | 4.5% |
| E.Cape | 1 402 | 2 318 | 3 720 | 38% | 11.4% |
| N.Province | 360 | 580 | 940 | 38% | 2.9% |
| Free State | 354 | 820 | 1 174 | 30% | 2.9% |
| W.Cape | 1 056 | 2501 | 3 557 | 30% | 8.6% |
| N.Cape | 63 | 549 | 612 | 10% | 0.5% |
| TOTAL RSA | 12 298 | 12 666 | 24 964 | 49% |
(Source: Compiled from SAPS CIAC data cited in Chetty, "Firearm Crime in South Africa," 23-25)
On the basis of the available, yet somewhat limited evidence, it is asserted that the majority of murders in South Africa are the result of intimate and acquaintance violence,42 very often characterised by intoxication and interpersonal disputes. Organised violence and stranger violence may form a higher proportion of the murder and attempted murder rate in Kwa-Zulu Natal and Gauteng than in other provinces, but it is doubtful that for South Africa as a whole the proportion exceeds 15 percent.43 This can only be postulated, and not proven conclusively because official murder and attempted murder statistics are not routinely analysed on the basis of the victim-perpetrator relationship and the degree of organised intent. As a result, official figures for murder and attempted murder broken down into gang-related incidents, factional conflicts, homicidal robbery and interpersonal violence etc., are not easily available.
According to the CIAC, the incidence of rape stabilised during the period 1994 to 1999 at 119 reported rapes per 100 000 of the population in 1999. In 1998 the CIAC reported a national ratio of 234.6 rape cases per 100 000 females.44 The SAPS themselves estimate that only one in thirty-five rapes is reported. If this is the case, then the incidence of rape would stand at 8211 per 100 000 of the female population or 4165 incidents of rape per 100 000 of the total population.45 Various victim surveys indicate that underreporting for sexual offences could range from 55 percent to 66 percent.46 Based on this, a very conservative estimate would put the actual incidence of rape at about 250 cases per 100 000 of the total population or 450 to 500 per 100 000 of the female population. It is highly likely that real number of rapes in South Africa, exceeds these estimates, which, in any event is inordinately and unacceptably high.
Victim surveys indicate that 46 percent of perpetrators of sexual offences were armed.47 Of those armed, almost 80 percent were armed with a knife and about 15 percent with a firearm.48 This would mean that overall about 8 percent of sexual offences are committed by a perpetrator armed with a gun. Conversely, 92 percent of rapes in South Africa are committed without the perpetrator being armed with a gun. This confirms Kleck's finding 49 that generally perpetrators of rape are not armed with a firearm.
The fact that about half of all rapes are committed without the perpetrator's use of any weapon at all testifies to the fact that in many cases inherent superior physical strength alone is sufficient to ensure successful execution of this crime. Of those perpetrators who were armed, the vast majority were armed with a knife. It is submitted that the very nature of this crime makes utilisation of a firearm less than efficacious. The use of a firearm may be more apt where there are multiple perpetrators such as in the case of gang rape. Whilst this cannot be proven, it is submitted that in those small number of cases where a firearm was utilised, another weapon would have been substituted should a firearm have been unavailable.
Research results based on rape cases in 1996 from the Western and Northern Cape and the Free State indicate that rape also exhibits the cyclical nature of other interpersonal violent crimes and peaks nationally over weekends, especially long weekends, and the holidays around Christmas and Easter. About a third of the suspects were under the influence of alcohol at the time of the rape. According to the police about 60 percent of the suspects were known to their victims, which implies a high degree of acquaintance rape.50
According to the CIAC some of the most important aspects of South Africa's high incidence of rape are the excessive consumption of alcohol and drug abuse, societal tolerance of violence towards women, HIV/AIDS myths that intercourse with a virgin can cure the infected and the initiation rites of gangs.51
Given the complex societal factors contributing to the high incidence of rape in South Africa and the very low rate of firearm utilisation in the perpetration of rape, the available evidence suggests that firearm availability is not a decisive factor in determining the incidence of rape in South Africa. Thus it can reasonably be assumed that firearm control is unlikely to significantly decrease the incidence of rape in South Africa. However, given that a firearm in the hands of the would-be victim can potentially be used to deter a rape, it is contended by Lott and Mustard 52 as well as Kleck and Gertz53 that firearm control may in fact increase the incidence of violent crime including rape. The argument for defensive gun use will be examined in some detail at a later stage.
Consequently, in further analysis of the Firearms Control Bill's potential to decrease violent crime in South Africa, rape will be excluded.
Aggravated robbery encompasses a fairly diverse group of crimes including all acts of robbery accompanied by high levels of violence or the threat thereof. Cash-in-transit heists and bank robberies make up a very small proportion of all aggravated robberies.54 Hijacking of trucks and cars are much more common and comprise about one fifth of all cases of serious robbery.55 Robbery with aggravating circumstances is rapidly on the increase and rose more than four times its expected population growth linked increase, in the period 1994 to 1999.56
| 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | |
| Total Serious Robbery | 84 900 |
80 071 |
67 249 |
69 691 |
88 319 |
| Robbery with Firearm | No Data |
No Data |
51 004 |
54 230 |
74 854 |
| Robbery with firearms as % of all Serious robberies | No Data |
No Data |
75.8% |
77.8% |
84.8% |
| Attempted robbery with a firearm | No Data |
No Data |
2 014 |
4 237 |
4 703 |
(Sources: SAPS CIAC cited in Chetty, "Firearm Crime in South Africa," 27 and SAPS cited in Hennop, "Illegal Firearms in Circulation,1120)
| Province | Firearm robberies | Firearm robberies per province as % of total firearm robberies in RSA |
| Gauteng | 37 770 | 50.5% |
| KZN | 16 935 | 22.6% |
| W.Cape | 5 014 | 6.6% |
| E.Cape | 4 856 | 6.5% |
| Mpumalanga | 3 277 | 4.4% |
| North West | 3 077 | 4.1% |
| N.Province | 2 158 | 2.9% |
| Free State | 1 615 | 2.2% |
| N.Cape | 152 | 0.2% |
| Total RSA | 7 4854 | 100% |
(Source: SAPS CIAC in Chetty, "Firearm Crime in South Africa," 27)
Property related crimes are generally perpetrated by strangers to the victim and typically involve the use of a weapon. Whilst street robbery may frequently be perpetrated with a knife, the firearm is the weapon of choice in most other types of aggravated robbery. Firearms were used in 85 percent of all serious robberies in 1998.57 This is presumably because firearms tend to be very intimidating and are more likely to ensure the victim's compliance. They also provide maximum protection against armed victims.
Hijacking of trucks, carjacking, cash-in transit heists and bank robberies are most often perpetrated by crime syndicates operating mainly in the large metropoles. Contrary to popular perception, despite the fact that over 90 percent of hijackers are armed, less than 1 percent of hijackings result in a fatal shooting. It appears that hijackings result in about sixty murders of the total ± 25 000 murders committed per year (that is only 0.2 percent of the total number of murders). Bank robberies and cash-in-transit heists result in the death of ± 100 people (quite possibly some fatalities are those of the perpetrators), which represents 0.4 percent of all murders.58
Armed robbery has spread to all comers of the country but remains concentrated in Gauteng and Kwa-Zulu Natal. These two provinces account for 73.1 percent of all firearm robberies that occurred in 1998.59 As previously mentioned this could be because these provinces are the main financial centres, more densely populated and have high unemployment and crime rates.60 Their geographical proximity to the borders of South Africa would also facilitate the movement of stolen goods and contraband out of the country.
The preceding analysis of violent crime in South Africa suggests that the vast majority of murders, assaults and rapes, as well as some attempted murders, can be classified as intimate and acquaintance violence. Organised violence and stranger violence may form a higher proportion of the murder and attempted murder in Kwa-Zulu Natal and Gauteng than in other provinces, but for South Africa as a whole the proportion probably does not exceed 15 percent.61 The vast majority of armed robberies can be classified as stranger violence.
The seasonal nature of most "violent crimes against the person" is very telling. There is a definite peak around the Christmas holidays in December and January and also on long weekends, especially the Easter weekend. These violent incidents tend to be characterised by excessive alcohol consumption and inter-personal disputes. This suggests that interventions aimed at preventing these crimes would need to address the excessive abuse of alcohol and the culture of violence in South Africa, if they are to be at all effective.
In South Africa, those violent crimes most commonly committed with firearms are armed robberies, murders and attempted murder. Thus, for the purposes of analysing firearm policy interventions, a focus these particular crimes can be justified.
_______________________________
1 Caution should be exercised when using
a compilation of data gathered from various sources as definitions and classifications are
not standard across the board. Crimes are sometimes classified differently by the police
and victim surveys, making data from these sources not directly comparable.
2 Some medical statistics, such as the number of patients with
firearm related injuries treated in hospitals, can be used to supplement or verify
official crime statistics. These should also be used with caution as only the injury
sustained is recorded and not the circumstances surrounding the incident. It is these
circumstances which would determine whether the act which inflicted the wound should be
considered a criminal act or a non-criminal act such as in the case of self-defence or a
lawful police shooting.
3 Steve Tshwete, the Minister for Safety and Security, made a
public announcement on 20/7/2000 declaring a moratorium on all crime statistics for the
year 2000 onwards.
4 SAPS CIAC, "The Crime Situation at National, Provincial, Area and
Station Level," in Semester Report 1/2000 http://www.saps.org.za/8_crmiemfo/12000/CrimeSituation.htm)
(13/08/2000).
5 Lala Camerer et al., Crime in Cape Town: Results of a City Victim Survey
in ISS Monograph no. 23 (http://www.iss.co.za/Pubs/MONOGRAPHS/No.%2023/Reporting.html)
(23/04/2000).
6 Englander, Understanding Violence, 13.
7 SAPS CIAC, "The Generators of Crime in South Africa," in Semester
Report 1/2000 (http://www.saps.org.za/8_crimemfo/12000/generators.htm) (13/08/2000).
8 Camerer et al, Crime in Cape Town and Antoinette Louw and Mark Shaw et
al.. Crime in Johannesburg: Results of a City Victim Survey, Monograph no. 18
(http://www.iss.co.za/Pubs/MONOGRAPHS/No.%2018/Victims.html) (15/08/2000).
9Ibid., 3.
10 Antoinette Louw, "Comparing Crime in South Africa's Major Cities:
Results of Four City Victim Surveys," in African Security Review, vol. 8 no.1
(http://www.iss.co.za/Pubs/ASR/8.1/compring%20crime/html)(24/4/2000).
11 According to Camerer et al., Crime in Cape Town, the levels of
reporting ranged from 93 % in the case of murder to 36 % in the case of sexual assault and
as low as 25 % in the case of sexual harassment.
12 Englander, Understanding Violence, 14-15.
13 Ibid., 15.
14 Such as the survey conducted by in the U.S.A. by Wright and Rossi, Armed
and Considered Dangerous.
15 SAPS CIAC, "Statistical Analysis of Reported Rape Cases." in Semester
Report 1/2000 (http://www.saps.org.za/8_crimeinfo/l 2000/rapeanalysis.htm)
(13/08/2000).
16 SAPS CIAC, "Generators of Crime."
17 Inter-departmental Strategy Team, NCPS, 4; Helen Taylor and Robert
Mattes "The Public Agenda" in Opinion 1999, Press Release, 24 May 1999
(http://www.idasa.org.za/pos/op99/op99_no34.htm?NS-se.. ..sd5.1
ff319&NS-doc-offset==0) (15/05/00).
18 Nedcor, Nedcor Project on Crime, 6-7.
19 SAPS CIAC, "Annexure E" to Semester Report on the Incidence of
Serious Crime in South Africa January to December 1998, Semester Report 1/99
(Pretoria, 1999).
20 Chetty, "Firearm Crime in South Africa," 26.
21 The World Health Organisation, Violence: A Public Health Priority
(Unpublished Memo) cited in Alexander Butchart, Johan Kruger and Victor Nell,
''Neighbourhood Safety: A Township Violence and Injury Profile," in Crime and
Conflict no. 9 (Winter 1997), 13.
22 As previously explained, self-directed violence will be excluded from
analysis.
23 SAPS CIAC, "Table 1," in Semester Report 1/2000 (http://www.saps.org.za/8_crimeinfo/12000/Tablel
.htm) (13/08/2000).
24 Hirschowitz et al, Victims of Crime Survey, (Pretoria: Statistics
South Africa, 1998). 53 and Camerer et al. Crime in Cape Town.
20 Chetty, "Firearm Crime in South Africa," 26.
21 The World Health Organisation, Violence: A Public Health Priority
(Unpublished Memo) cited in Alexander Butchart, Johan Kruger and Victor Nell,
''Neighbourhood Safety: A Township Violence and Injury Profile," in Crime and
Conflict no. 9 (Winter 1997), 13.
22 As previously explained, self-directed violence will be excluded from
analysis.
23 SAPS CIAC, "Table 1," in Semester Report 1/2000 (http://www.saps.org.za/8_crimeinfo/12000/Tablel
.htm) (13/08/2000).
24 Hirschowitz et al, Victims of Crime Survey, (Pretoria: Statistics
South Africa, 1998). 53 and Camerer et al. Crime in Cape Town.
25 SAPS CIAC, "Table I."
26 Mark Shaw, "Violent Crime in South Africa," in Firearm Use and
Distribution, ed. Robert Chetty, 13.
27 SAPS CIAC, Table 1."
28 Hirschowitz et al. Victims of Crime Survey, 50-51.
29 Chetty, "Firearm Crime in South Africa," 26.
30 SAPS CIAC, "A Selection of Research Results Received from Provincial
Crime Information Management Centre Offices" in Monthly Report 2/97(http^/www.saps.co.za/8_crimeinfo/297/research.htm)
(13/08/2000).
31ld
32Id.
33 Western Cape SAPS CIAC, Semester Report 2/99 (December 1999), 5,
34 SAPS CIAC, "Generators of Crime."
35 Id.
36 SAPS CIAC, "Generators of Crime."
37 Chetty, "Firearm Crime in South Africa," 22-23.
38 SAPS CIAC, "Crime Situation."
39 Ettienne Hennop, "Illegal Firearms in Circulation in South
Africa," in Society Under Siege, ed. Virginia Gamba, 29.
40 Ibid., 30.
41 SAPS CIAC. "Generators of Crime."
42 It should be noted that "acquaintance" does not denote someone
with whom the victim was necessarily on friendly terms. This term could be used to
describe an opposing gang member, a prostitute, shopkeeper, taxi-drivers client etc. as
well as a drinking buddy or social acquaintance. Given the extremely broad definition of
the term it could be used to describe almost anyone that the victim ever had any kind of
contact with. Hammond, "UCA Submission on Bill."
43 Wesson, "Murder and Private Firearms."
44 SAPS CIAC, "Rape Analysis."
45 Bollen et al, Introduction to Violence Against Women in Metropolitan
South Africa: A Study on Impact and Service Delivery, ISS Monograph no. 41 (1999).
(http://www.iss.co.za/Pubs/MONOGRAPHS/41/Introduction.html) (03/08/2000)
46 Hirschowitz et al. Victims of Crime 58 ; Camerer et al., Crime in
Cape Town and Antoinette Louw et al., Crime in Johannesburg.
47 Hirschowitz et al., Victims of Crime, 50.
48 Ibid., 51.
49 Gary Kleck, "Policy Lessons from Recent Gun Control Research," in Law
and Contemporary Problems, 49 (1986) in Hansson, "Guns and Control," 18.
50 SAPS CIAC. "Selection of Research Results."
51 SAPS CIAC, "Rape Analysis."
52 Lott and Mustard, "Crime and Deterrence."
53 Kleck and Gertz, "Armed Resistance to Crime."
54 Shaw. "Violent crime in South Africa," 16-17.
55 Robert Chetty, "Summary," in Firearm Use and Distribution,
10.
56 SAPS CIAC, "Crime Situation."
57 Chetty, "Firearm Crime in South Africa," 27.
58 SAPS CIAC, "Generators of Crime"
59 Hennop, "Illegal Firearms in Circulation," 30.
60 Ibid. 29.
61 Wesson, "Murder and Private Firearms."